Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, recently stumbled below the critical threshold of $60,000, dragging the broader market along with it.
This drop rattled investors and experts, triggering discussions about the market’s future trajectory. However, some have prepared their minds, believing Bitcoin could witness more declines. A Standard Chartered Bank analyst states that this present decline could begin a major downturn.
Expert Predict Significant Bitcoin Price Drop
Peter Brandt, a seasoned chart analyst and founder of Factor Trading, believes that Bitcoin’s recent high of around $73,000 in March might be its peak. He warns investors of a possible 50% decrease in the token’s value.
According to sources, Brandt once predicted Bitcoin’s sharp decline in 2018, when it lost about 80% of its value. Now, he suggests there’s a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already reached its peak for this cycle.
He anticipates a drop back to the mid-$30,000 range, representing a roughly 50% decrease from its current level.
Popular analysts support his reasoning with the concept of “exponential decay.” According to him, gains in each Bitcoin cycle from 2009 to 2021 declined by about 20% compared to the previous.
Using this idea for the current cycle, Brandt thinks a bullish trend might only get about 4.5 times bigger than the last one from 2018 to 2021. Therefore, his projections indicate that Bitcoin may have hit its cycle high at $73,750 in March, meaning traders should expect a further downturn.
Bitcoin’s Dip Below $60K Could Foreshadow Further Declines, Warns Experts
In a recent discussion, Standard Chartered Bank predicts more trouble for Bitcoin as it dips below $60,000. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of the bank’s forex and digital assets research, suggests that Bitcoin could tumble further to the $50-52K range.
During an interview with The Block, Kendrick pointed to specific issues in crypto as the drivers of the decline. These include consecutive outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and a low response to new spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs in Hong Kong.
According to Kendrick, over 50% of the spot ETF positions have declined, and the rest are at risk of liquidation. He also highlighted the broader economic factors impacting Bitcoin, including declining liquidity measures in the U.S. since mid-April.
Kendrick suggests that assets like crypto, which need lots of liquidity, feel pressure as the economy becomes tighter. He foresees a potential re-entry point for Bitcoin at the $50-52k range, particularly if upcoming U.S. inflation data on the 15th is favorable.
Bitcoin’s Bearish Sentiment: A Buying Opportunity or More Pain Ahead?
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently in a bearish phase, potentially fueled by the arrest of former Binance CEO CZ. This news has instilled negative sentiment in the market, causing investors to sell, resulting in BTC losing the crucial $60,000 price.
The bearish momentum is evident in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, which now sits below the signal line. BTC’s price is below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) line, further confirming the bearish trend.
However, there are signs of a potential trend reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently 34, suggesting oversold conditions. This presents an attractive entry point for investors seeking to buy Bitcoin at discounted prices, potentially introducing upward pressure to the asset’s price.
Moreover, Bitcoin is approaching the 200-day SMA, which could act as a strong support zone where the price may find a bottom and reverse course.
Is it the Best Time to Buy or Not to Buy?
The current situation presents a dilemma for investors: Should they buy the dip, anticipate a potential reversal, or wait for further confirmation of a bullish trend?
While the oversold RSI and the approach toward the 200-day SMA support level could signal a buying opportunity, caution is advised. Bitcoin’s price may continue to face selling pressure in the short term due to the negative sentiment surrounding the Binance CEO’s arrest.
Investors should monitor the chart’s reaction and relevant news while managing risk exposure accordingly.
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